In Canada, federal parties stand at federal elections; at provincial elections in the devolved assemblies, bespoke province-only parties stand, win and form governments (the New Democratic Party, Canada’s fourth party, is the exception to this rule, with unified federal and provincial parties).
It was clear to me, then, that the Scottish Tory party was never going to be in a position to win an election, but at the time there were, by my recollection, fewer than five people who agreed.
By 2010, however, the concept of a separate party was the centrepiece of the leadership campaign of Murdo Fraser. Despite an intense campaign against him by the party hierarchy, Fraser persuaded more than four-in-ten members to vote for him at a 2011 leadership election, including leading figures Malcolm Rifkind, David McLetchie, Alex Fergusson and Alister Jack.
One of the successful arguments that contributed to Fraser’s defeat was that a split in the Tory party would be a metaphor for a split in the country. That, of course, belies the Canadian experience, but even without that evidence the argument has now disintegrated.
It is now perfectly clear to anyone who is prepared to look, that the only metaphor with resonance is the unequal relationship between the two parts of the Conservative Party being a metaphor for the unequal relationship between the two largest countries in the UK. The lack of a viable Tory government at Holyrood merely accentuates the perception of Scotland being ‘put-upon’ by a Tory government at Westminster.
All of this means that it is hardly a surprise that the events of last week have reinvigorated calls for a separate party, both from old hands and new converts. My gut instinct tells me that the party’s DNA will take over and there will be no change; it tells me that MSPs will wait to see who takes over from Johnson and cross their fingers.
If they do so, they not only consign themselves to perpetual defeat in their efforts to form a government in Scotland, but they also risk sacrificing the Union at the altar of party unity.
There is a way forward for the centre-Right in Scotland, and there is a way forward for the UK. But neither takes the form they do today.
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