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# Out to Luntz
- URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/out-to-luntz/
- Published: 2007-08-09T22:08:37.000Z
- Updated: 2019-02-14T22:37:01.000Z
- Author: openDemocracy Supporters
- Tags: #en, #Migrated, #Import 2026-04-09 18:23

**Anthony Barnett (London,** [**OK**](http://ourkingdom.opendemocracy.net/2007/05/08/hot-off-press-call-for-new-settlement/?ref=opendemocracy.net)**):** One has to chuckle. The excellent ePolitix has just [completed a survey](http://www.epolitix.com/EN/News/200708/09f5e6ff-edc2-480d-bd18-1c14d5149949.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net) of more than a thousand of its well-connected users and "only 15 per cent think the Conservative leader will make it to Number 10 - while 62 per cent think he never will". This judgement reinforces the current [running poll of polls](http://www.ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/voting-intention/?ref=opendemocracy.net) in UKPollingReport. There is many a slip, of course and Guido Fawks has placed £50 of his ill-gotten gains on Brown [losing the next election](http://www.order-order.com/2007/08/contrarian-crazy.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) citing the coming economic crash. It seems to me that this is a case of GF projecting his pyromania onto the voters. If the economic cycle nose-dives, most people will stick with Brown 'for fear of worse' - after all, even die-hard Tories may think twice about putting the country into the hands of an inexperienced Tory environmentalist if world capitalism is crashing around us. Cameron has positioned himself as a luxury item.

However, the reason I'm chuckling is that I recalled the lionisation of Frank Luntz, an American polling expert brought across by Newsnight to reveal the dark arts of Washington to a trembling and grateful subject nation. In 2005 he was credited with selecting David Cameron himself as the people's Tory. Last September I watched with disbelief his Newsnight focus group [identify John Reid](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/5379172.stm?ref=opendemocracy.net) as the sure-fire voters favorite. I think he was even given a cover story in the Spectator. Perhaps it was Luntz who helped persuade Cameron that Brown was a grumpy figure of the past who was bound to be unpopular.