> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.opendemocracy.net/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Syria at Geneva II: the missing proxy - URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/syria-at-geneva-ii-missing-proxy/ - Published: 2014-01-23T05:01:27.000Z - Updated: 2019-02-14T22:23:05.000Z - Description: A way forward in Syria must address the rival positions of Iran and Saudi Arabia. In this context, the Geneva talks offer little hope. - Author: Paul Rogers - Tags: Conflict & security, #Migrated, Politics & activism, democracy & power, globalisation, Democracy and government, conflict, International politics, global security, #en, #Import 2026-04-09 17:36 The first day of the Geneva II talks, 22 January 2014, was marked by [acrimonious](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25836827?ref=opendemocracy.net) speeches from representatives of both Bashar al-Assad's regime in Damascus and the Syrian rebels. The United Nations representative Lakhdar Brahimi is meeting the two sides separately and try to persuade them to move towards direct negotiations in Geneva on 23 January, or at least to agree to be in the same location. [Brahimi](http://www.un.org/News/dh/iraq/brahimi-bio-jan04.htm?ref=opendemocracy.net) is an impressive diplomat, quite possibly the best in the UN system for this kind of task, but there are doubts whether even he can bring the sides together. Even if that does happen, the most that can be hoped for is that aid channels may be improved, maybe even to the extent of allowing temporary ceasefires. Yet in such a bitter civil [war](http://beta.syriadeeply.org/?ref=opendemocracy.net) as this, moves such as these can be utilised by either or both sides to regroup and resupply. In any case, this is not really the crux of the Syrian situation. Two quite different aspects are far more significant. **A double proxy war** The first and most obvious is the conspicuous [absence](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25820373?ref=opendemocracy.net) of Iran. Syria is, as several columns in this [series](http://www.opendemocracy.net/author/paul-rogers) have argued, a "double proxy" war in which two [pairs](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/syria-last-chance) of rival forces - Iran-Saudi Arabia most immediately, and the United States-Russia at a higher level - are proxy actors. The latter two are at [Geneva](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24628442?ref=opendemocracy.net), and show some evidence of determination to make progress; but Iran is missing. Moreover, who else *is* [present](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25811692?ref=opendemocracy.net) will rile Tehran - for the cast-list includes almost every Arab country across the middle east and north Africa (including Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, the UAE, and of course Saudi Arabia). Beyond the Arab world, Turkey is there and even the Vatican, but not Iran! Whatever the politics of the [omission](http://theconversation.com/torture-pictures-may-not-stop-syria-talks-but-irans-absence-is-a-glaring-omission-22261?ref=opendemocracy.net) it makes nonsense of the talks - given Iran’s support for the Syrian regime, its links to [Hizbollah](http://www.opendemocracy.net/globalization/hizbollah%5F3757.jsp), and the presence of Iranian paramilitaries inside Syria. Moreover, Rowhani appears keen to [work](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/iran-hopes-and-fears) more closely with the US and there are signs that he wants to see a scaling down of the war, not least because of the risk that Syria becomes another seat of radical *Sunni* paramilitaries (see "[Syria, the peace margin](http://www.opendemocracy.net/opensecurity/paul-rogers/syria-peace-margin)", 16 January 2014). The second, linked element relates to Saudi Arabia’s [involvement](http://www.opendemocracy.net/madawi-al-rasheed/saudi-arabia-and-syria-logic-of-dictators) in the war, which appears to have undergone significant changes in recent months. Though accurate and relevant information is not easily available, reasonably competent analysis indicates that inside Syria there are three quite distinct Islamist entities. The first is the ISIL. This has the closest identity with [al-Qaida's](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/al-qaidas-idea-three-years-on) vision, strong connections with *Sunni* paramilitaries opposing the Nouri al-Maliki government in Iraq, and the most significant [involvement](http://www.yalibnan.com/2014/01/04/new-syria-rebel-alliance-declares-war-on-al-qaedas-isil/?ref=opendemocracy.net) of foreigners from across the region and beyond. The [ISIL](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24179084?ref=opendemocracy.net) is competent and disciplined. It seeks clear-cut Islamist governance in territories it [controls](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/syria-next-blowback). It may bring order with relatively low levels of corruption to towns, villages and city districts it takes over but the [rigidity](http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/01/rise-fall-isil-syria-201411572925799732.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) of its rule loses it popularity with a Syrian population that has - despite the authoritarianism of the Assad regime before the present war started - been more cosmopolitan in culture than many other Arab states, The second entity is the [Al-Nusra Front](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18048033?ref=opendemocracy.net). This also follows the al-Qaida idea, but is rather less strict in its governance and has a smaller proportion of foreigners in its ranks. The third entity is the Islamic Council. This is composed of a [cluster](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-25053525?ref=opendemocracy.net) of Islamist paramilitary groups that came [together](http://news.yahoo.com/syria-39-islamic-front-issue-strong-warning-jihadists-193320113.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) in late 2013\. What makes this mapping important is Saudi Arabia's shifting [approach](http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/1/20/saudi-arabia-walksafinelinkinbackingsyriarebellion.html?ref=opendemocracy.net). In the past Riyadh appears to have provided support for ISIL and Al-Nusra, but it now focuses on providing aid to the groups acting under the aegis of the Islamic Council. It is, furthermore, doing so in a systematic [manner](http://mebriefing.com/?p=415&ref=opendemocracy.net) that seeks to ensure that the Islamic Council becomes the [dominant](http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/12/syria-fsa-islamic-front-geneva-ii-jarba.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) voice of opposition to Bashar al-Assad. Saudi Arabia may have formally agreed to support the notion of a [post-Assad](http://www.opendemocracy.net/carsten-wieland/syria-decade-of-lost-chances) transitional government, but it plan to ensure that this itself becomes no more than a transition to a far more Islamist Syria. Riyadh's success in that objective would curb the influence that Iran has [gained](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/americas-wars-long-fallout) since the Americans terminated the Saddam Hussein [regime](http://www.opendemocracy.net/conflict/article%5F1900.jsp) in Iraq in 2003, inadvertently boosting Tehran’s influence in Baghdad in the process. **A slim chance** The core [reality](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/01/syrian-peace-talks-stuck-over-assad-future-201412218560594671.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) is that Saudi Arabia is set on seeing the regime in Damascus fall, and Iran is equally adamant that it should survive. But Saudi Arabia is at Geneva II and Iran is [not](http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/iran-blames-us-for-blocking-it-from-syria-peace-talks-in-geneva/2014/01/21/53814508-8276-11e3-a273-6ffd9cf9f4ba%5Fstory.html?ref=opendemocracy.net), thereby negating any possibility of substantive progress, even under Lakhdar Brahimi's skilled guidance. All else is little more than window-dressing. Meanwhile this [disastrous](http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/01/report-syria-tortured-executed-11000-20141211307452644.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) conflict claims more lives and further wrecks Syria. Can Russia work behind the scenes to bring Iran into the frame in some guise? Perhaps it can, with Sergey Lavrov’s personal warmth [towards](http://www.opendemocracy.net/paul-rogers/syria-war-and-negotiation) John Kerry one of the very positive aspects of a wretched situation. If not, then whatever fine words are spoken at Geneva, any progress will be meagre at best.