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# The final hurdle to Scottish independence?
- URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/the-four-hurdles-to-scottish-independence/
- Published: 2008-07-29T21:07:25.000Z
- Updated: 2019-02-14T22:41:17.000Z
- Author: Tom Griffin
- Tags: #en, #Migrated, #Import 2026-04-09 18:41

**Tom Griffin (London,** [**OK**](https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom)**):**In the wake of the Glasgow East by-election, commentators such as [Iain MacWhirter](http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.gordonbrown?ref=opendemocracy.net), [Peter Oborne](http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1038756/Could-Mr-Brown-Prime-Minister-Great-Britain.html?ref=opendemocracy.net) and [Simon Jenkins](http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/simon%5Fjenkins/article4407171.ece?ref=opendemocracy.net), have been examining the prospect of Scottish independence with increasing seriousness.

The Constitution Unit's Professor Robert Hazell provides a useful counterpoint over at [Comment is Free](https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/blog/2008/05/12/independence-would-require-two-referendum-says-constitution-unit). He suggests that there are four major obstacles the SNP must overcome to achieve its goal.

1. Winning a vote in the Scottish Parliament authorising a referendum.
2. Winning a referendum to authorise independence negotiations.
3. Negotiating terms with the British Government and with the European Union.
4. Winning a second referendum on the agreed terms.

The final hurdle is Hazell's most distinctive contribution, as [Guy Aitchison](https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/blog/2008/05/12/independence-would-require-two-referendum-says-constitution-unit) noted back in May, and may be the most contentious. Some might equate insisting on a second referendum with a eurocrat-style refusal to accept the result of the first.

Such tactics look [increasingly unlikely ](http://www.openeurope.org.uk/media-centre/pressrelease.aspx?pressreleaseid=81&ref=opendemocracy.net)to save the Lisbon Treaty, and they would not necessarily save the union.