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# The next four weeks
- URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/the-next-four-weeks/
- Published: 2007-09-14T11:09:43.000Z
- Updated: 2019-02-14T22:37:20.000Z
- Author: openDemocracy Supporters
- Tags: #en, #Migrated, #Import 2026-04-09 18:31

**Anthony Barnett (London,** [**OK**](http://ourkingdom.opendemocracy.net/2007/05/08/hot-off-press-call-for-new-settlement/?ref=opendemocracy.net)**):** "The next four weeks, I believe, will determine the course of politics for the foreseeable future." This is Iain Dale's alarmed conclusion to his column in [today's Telegraph](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2007/09/14/do1402.xml&ref=opendemocracy.net). It's his reaction to Brown's takeover bid for Thatcher and Saatchi and Saatchi (wonderfully satirised by [Steve Bell)](http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/index.html?ref=opendemocracy.net). It does indeed point to Brown calling an October election. Here is my start to the list of why he should:

- He has the momentum.
- The Tories seem unable to stop trashing each other - the latest being their internal row over the Quality of Life report which combines class war and blogland philistinism and stupidity, which I'll post about as soon as I can.
- The aftershocks of [the day the world changed](http://ourkingdom.opendemocracy.net/2007/09/14/9-august-the-day-the-world-changed/?ref=opendemocracy.net) are just starting
- If house prices decline - as they should - however inflated they may be the feel good factor will go down with them.
- The referendum demand will undermine his claim to be trusted.

And why he shouldn't

- The demand for a referendum on Europe will be a decisively damaging election issue (EU summit is Oct 18)
- Scotland is a wild card
- It is out of character for him to cut and run

Please add your own lists of for and against.