> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://www.opendemocracy.net/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Tactical votes and soft Tories: How to keep Reform out of Number 10 - URL: https://www.opendemocracy.net/how-to-stop-reform-winning-next-election-farage-tactical-voting-andy-burnham-labour-hope-soft-tories/ - Published: 2026-09-29T15:10:19.000Z - Updated: 2026-09-29T15:12:42.000Z - Description: Mobilising an anti-Reform voter coalition takes work, information, and community building, says Hope Not Hate - Author: Sian Norris - Tags: Reform UK, Nigel Farage, Labour Party, Labour Party Conference, Andy Burnham, elections, voting, cryptocurrencies “Soft Tories are some of the most anti-Reform voters” and will be key to defeating Nigel Farage at the next general election, according to Hope Not Hate’s CEO, Nick Lowles. Speaking on a panel at the Labour Party Conference, Lowles said the anti-racist NGO’s new [report](https://hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Blocking-the-Path-Final-250826.pdf?ref=opendemocracy.net) has found centre-right Conservatives are put off by Reform’s chaos and sleaze and are “willing to vote tactically in by-elections” to keep Farage out of Number 10\. But Lowles warned that Labour cannot rely solely on anti-Reform sentiment to return it to power at the next general election, instead urging the party to campaign on “Labour values” and “have answers for working-class communities”. Those values were at the heart of prime minister Andy Burnham’s first conference speech as Labour Party leader, where he promised to “draw a line on a decade of division, to put the country on a new path: a Britain with belief again, people with hope again. A Britain for everyone, no matter who we are or where we are born.” While he did not address the rise of the far right directly, a visibly emotional Burnham spoke of his late dad’s Britain as a “country that stood up to fascism”. Labour has framed “Hope Again” as the defining message of its conference, abandoning its previous doom messaging and pitching to a pragmatic and progressive vote. The shift comes as Reform suffers a dip in its popularity after a [summer of scandal](https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-reform-survive-its-summer-of-scandal/) around donations and party financing. Hope Not Hate’s report found that 43% of the British public would be unhappy with a Reform government winning in 2029, more than the 36% who said they would be happy with such an outcome. But Lowles cautioned against complacency, warning that 83 councils are at risk of being taken over by Reform in next year’s local elections, which will be held in all local authorities in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and some in England. Hope Not Hate has also identified [199 parliamentary seats](https://hopenothate.org.uk/blocking-the-path/?ref=opendemocracy.net) where a split opposition would pave the way for a far-right victory. ## **How to defeat Reform** There are five distinct groups within the broader anti-Reform coalition, according to Hope Not Hate’s report. The largest of these are “comfortable moderates” (30%) and “pragmatic progressives” (30%), followed by the “disaffected right” (20%), the “hopeful left” (14%) and “agitated activists” (6%). While these voters are open to voting tactically to keep the party out of power, the report said, high-quality information is needed for any such effort to be successful. This is undermined by “[dubious](https://hopenothate.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Blocking-the-Path-Final-250826.pdf?ref=opendemocracy.net)” tactical voting information from political parties, which are less willing than the public to lend votes to a rival party in order to stop a Reform MP from entering Westminster. Reform has led the polls for much of the past two years, with its electoral success becoming seen as inevitable. But Labour has recently regained a narrow lead – highlighting that Farage’s party has weak spots that can be weaponised, said panellist Steve Akehurst, the director of the Persuasion think tank. One such electoral weakness is Reform’s link to Donald Trump, whom voters in the UK view as “brash” and “nasty” – characteristics they increasingly associate with Farage. The party also shares many of the problems facing the Trump administration, including being seen as chaotic – a particularly salient problem for those on the centre-right. In a similar vein, anger at Reform’s vested interests, and how the party promotes its donors’ interests, is fuelling anti-Reform voters across the board. This includes the party’s embrace of crypto while receiving mega donations from crypto billionaires Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo. The proximity between Reform and crypto interests even got a mention in chancellor John Healey’s conference speech, as he joked that Farage’s economic vision for the UK is “Liz Truss with a bitcoin account”. Again, as was the case for the Trump campaign, Akehurst identified Reform’s problems with misogyny as affecting their vote, with women switching from the party to Labour at July’s Makerfield by-election – eventually won by Burnham – after it was reported that its candidate had made sexist comments. Reform-voting men did not shift their allegiance, Akehurst noted. While calling out Reform’s negativity is one vote-winner, said Labour MP for Gateshead Central Mark Ferguson, so is offering voters a message of hope. “I’m a big fan of show, not say,” he said, urging Labour to go out and demonstrate the chance they are making for communities. He used the example of breakfast clubs in his constituency as an example of how the government is making a tangible difference to working-class families. That message of hope will be necessary, Ferguson told the panel’s audience, to counter “£72m worth of direct mail campaigns to voters from Nigel Farage” – referencing the £36m donations from Harborne and Delo. Reform could be made to give most of the money back if the government’s planned restrictions on political donations come into force and are retrospectively applied. This is where local campaigning from anti-racist, democratic and progressive organisations can make a real difference. The fight to keep Reform out of power in 2029, Lowles said, comes from “knowing the localities, knowing the issues, and starts now”.