Fair Deal (Slugger O'Toole): The Northern Ireland Executive met last month for the first time since June. Two letters signified an agreement between the DUP and Sinn Fein on policing and justice (Letter 1 and letter 2 (pdf files)). Many are questioning what the 150+ day hiatus was about?

The Northern Ireland peace process is an instrumental one, consistently agreeing a limited number of issues with more difficult ones left for a later date. The hope is that successful implementation will make difficult issues resolvable later without a crisis, something the NI process has rarely managed.  In terms of hegemony in the process, the party with something still to give has an advantage.

This was demonstrated clearly with the issue of decommissioning. With no progress, a frustrated Trimble had to force the issue but without a default mechanism he was reduced to administrative blockages and threatened resignations to try to apply pressure. Republicanism’s attachment to the gun at an ideological and visceral level meant it was attractive just to ignore it, but it also meant Sinn Fein had the most to trade with and neither did they trade it all away in one go.

The devolution of policing and justice is the St Andrew’s Agreement decommissioning with the roles  of Unionism and Republicans reversed. The ‘target date’ of May 2008 came and went with no devolution just as the two year target for decommissioning came and went. Sinn Fein’s response was to resort to administrative blockages and threaten to walk away. If the game plan had been to get the governments deeply involved it didn’t work. The Northern Ireland Office successfully pleaded with the DUP not to invoke the Ministerial Code and Courts.  This left it up to SF and DUP to deal directly.

From it Sinn Fein got an agreed ‘process’ for devolving policing and justice. It has no date. If devolved it will not be a Sinn Fein justice minister, keeping the key DUP manifesto pledge. It still has the caveats of community confidence. It still has the vetoes. IRA structures were not mentioned but Robinson claims he has been given private commitments that he wants to be made public.  Sinn Fein can claim progress but the DUP still holds its cards.

With yet another instrumental deal and more constructive ambiguities plenty can go wrong.  It appears Easter 2009 will be the first test with a Sinn Fein columnist arguing that the process meant a new department “could be functioning by the early months of the new year” and the Department of Foreign Affairs is giving briefings of April 2009.  Even on a practical level such timings seem hopeful and haste would leave the process open to legal challenges.  A European election in June 2009 is an electoral test with dissenting Unionists wanting to make the most of the opportunity. 

So the never-ending story of the peace process continues to twist and turn. Immune to the declining level of interest.