The prognosis of a thirty-year war looked outlandish as Saddam's regime toppled, persuasive as Iraq's insurgency erupted - and now less plausible amid American forces' retreat. But two core issues continue to give it life.
There is powerful evidence for the argument that the al-Qaida movement is in decline. But there are other processes at work - including in United States presidential politics - that could yet create a different outcome.
A year of turbulence across a wide arc from AfPak to the Arab world, from Somalia to Nigeria, poses key questions to al-Qaida. The movement again commissions a report from its favoured consultancy, to which openDemocracy has exclusive access.
The tensions between Washington and Tehran are being further fuelled by naval exercises and discussion of strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. This makes the absence of a direct communications channel all the more worrying.
A series of developments - in Iraq, the United States and Iran itself - nudges the balance of calculation towards an attack on Tehran. The additional danger is that this could happen by inadvertence.
The argument in America for war against Iran is often couched in religious-apocalyptic terms. But the decisive element in the end will be strategic and political calculation.
A fresh awareness of system-failure and resource-constraint draws on the experience and ideas of the 1970s. But this time the vision of radical change is real possibility as well as urgent necessity. (This article was first published on 1 December 2011)
In the face of the world’s urgent economic and environmental problems, political leadership is failing. But from the ground up, new tools of understanding are emerging to fill the gap and point a way forward.
The global demonstrations of 2011 both highlight the reality of economic system-failure and reveal its linkage to the crisis of resource constraints. The result is a measure of the scale of change needed over coming decades.
The prospect of an Israeli military assault on Iran's nuclear assets is growing. The scale and impact of any attack would be far greater than most observers expect.
The western military alliance sees the result of the anti-Gaddafi war as a vindication of its strategy. But the true accounting of Nato’s campaign - including on the ledger of arms companies - tells a different story.
The dismantling of a powerful nuclear bomb closes a chapter of the cold war. But the choices and responsibilities embedded in the story of the B53 make this a 21st-century story too.
