Where is al-Qaida going after the Arab spring and the death of the movement's figurehead? The dynamics of global security in the 21st century offer an answer. The question is also one that the Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad was investigating at the time of his shocking murder.
The death of Osama bin Laden is a crucial military-political opportunity for Barack Obama. But the United States defence complex has Beijing and budgets on its mind.
The west's military-political strategy prolongs the war in Libya and gives space to authoritarian regimes elsewhere in the region.(This article was first published on 19 May 2011)
The afterglow of Osama bin Laden’s killing fuels the United States’s confidence in its shift towards integration of military and security policy. But it is another grand illusion and missed opportunity.
The death of the al-Qaida leader is a symbolic moment. But far more important is that the future of his movement - and much else besides - is closely tied to the success or failure of the Arab risings.
The diplomatic signals point to negotiation with the Taliban as a route to ending the Afghan conflict. But the geopolitical hurdles remain formidable.
The 2010s turned out to be the transforming decade, and it was an unexpected combination of prophetic thinking and world events, which finally made things happen. By 2015 the impact
Libya's war is being shaped by Tripoli's defiance, the rebels' endurance, and the western coalition's strains. In the mix, a Gaddafi regime faced with elimination is making larger plans.
A single incident in Libya's evolving conflict may come to be pivotal in shaping the fate both of the anti-Gaddafi effort and of western military intervention.
Both the west and the Gaddafi regime are assessing the prospect of a military stalemate in Libya. In any extended campaign, United States-Israel cooperation could offer Tripoli an unexpected gift.
The west’s military-political strategy against the Gaddafi regime echoes its flawed approach to Afghanistan and Iraq, says Paul Rogers in this, his 500th weekly column for openDemocracy.
The diplomatic context of the anti-Gaddafi war is different from that of earlier western military interventions in the Arab world. But its motives, methods, silences, and falsities are all too familiar.
