The first Chechen war: Grozny. Demoted/Alexander Nemenov. All rights reserved.“The Islamic State (IS) is Russia's main enemy”, the Russian Foreign Minister Serguei Lavrov has recently declared and, indeed, the Kremlin has reasons to be worried about them. Out of an estimated 20,000 foreign recruits fighting in Iraq and Syria in the ranks of IS and other extremist groups, it is believed that 2,200 are Russian nationals.
Russia’s main concern is the impact the rise of these jihadist groups may have on its domestic Islamist insurgency. For decades, the North Caucasus region has been prone to political instability and violence, and Russia has waged two wars in Chechnya since the collapse of the Soviet Union. After Russia's last military campaign, which lasted throughout the 2000s, Chechnya has remained relatively calm but the instability spread to the rest of the mountainous region. During this time, Chechnya’s initially secular national liberation movement has been transformed by a militant jihadist movement, strongly influenced by pan-Islamic fundamentalist ideas.
Nowadays, jihadist militants such as the self-proclaimed “Caucasus Emirate” in the North Caucasus are seeking to establish a pan-Caucasus state governed under Sharia law. However, the escalation of the conflict in Syria in recent years has shifted the regional insurgency dynamic in Russia. In particular, the exodus of hundreds of fighters from the North Caucasus to Syria to join IS and al-Qaeda’s official local affiliate, the al-Nusra Front, has led to attacks in the North Caucasus falling to the lowest levels in years.
Evidence exists that fighters of North Caucasian origin were present in Syria since 2012. They decided to embark on armed jihad in Syria and gain valuable battlefield experience which may ultimately have repercussions on the struggle in the Caucasus on their return.
