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Would the United Kingdom survive an exit from the EU?

All the talk of a Brexit seems to have ignored one salient fact: that a British withdrawal from the EU would spark a constitutional crisis regarding the devolution settlement, and potentially lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom.

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Could Brexit lead to the break up of the UK? Demotix/Ken Jack. All rights reserved.In September 2014, the UK survived one of the most serious threats to its constitutional existence – the very closely run Scottish referendum on independence. 

That this was indeed perceived as a huge risk to the continuance of the UK is illustrated by the almost desperate nature of the last minute ‘Vow’ made by all three party leaders to accord greater powers to Scotland if necessary to maintain the Union.

Therefore, the risk of such further constitutional instability should be taken seriously. Yet this is not happening, given the neglect of the impact on the devolution settlement of any future UK exit from the EU. The consequences on devolution tend to be the least discussed aspect of any ‘Brexit’.