A new poll by ISPA predicts the following results:
Ahmadinejad: 45%
Rafsanjani: 39.1%
Participation: 62.6% (definite);
74% (most probably)
In the first round, polls were highly unreliable indicators in determining the final outcome. For example the following reflects the finals numbers from the first compared with the polling prediction in parenthesis:
Rafsanjani: 21.2% (27.2%)
Ahmadinejad: 19.3% (7.7%)
Karrubi: 18.7% (10.8%)
Qalibaf: 13.9% (16.5%)
Moeen: 13.7% (18.9%)
Larijani: 6.0% (7.7%)
Mehralizadeh: 4.4% (5.9%)
Although ISPA is a professional polling company with no party ties, it would be inappropriate given the recent events to place too much weight on these numbers. Also make sure and check outIran Mania which does an excellent job on key issues.
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