Not often emphasised is the fact that in 2013, President Erdoğan and his AKP, which he had reduced to a submissive instrument, became unable to govern Turkey. We can trace the subsequent and much discussed yet recognized authoritarianism back to those days. The fraying economy and the spoiled interest-based partnership established with the Gülen Movement propelled Erdoğan to grow combative, become further Islamicised state identity and, finally, fuse these with ethno-nationalism. In short, the structure today deemed the “New Turkey”, named for Erdoğan, his family, the nationalist MHP and the Eurasianists and dominated by segments proximate to them, assumed form in those days. But the June 2018 presidential election in which Erdoğan struggled to win 50% of the vote, the summer’s ferocious and persistent economic doldrums and technical consecutive losses in the 2019 local elections have indicated that the Erdoğan-oriented patrimonial and repressive regime could collapse. And novel, serious candidates began to emerge for the first time in this context.
The relatively sudden and rapidly materialising possibility of change in this administration which has maintained itself for years lent itself to discussions of an early election over candidates and parties that may start to form. Most of the analysis emphasises a fatigued Erdoğan and his government and their inability to respond to Turkey’s needs while arguing what share of the vote new political actors could break off from the People’s Alliance, comprising the AKP and MHP. Moreover, some strategy institutions and analysts have even started debating how, through what means and under whose leadership the post-Erdoğan Turkey will take shape. But in my opinion, these either neglect a crucial point, or are somehow avoiding its discussion: Is the creation of a Brand-New Turkey possible over the ruins of the New Turkey? If so, what aspects of the Brand-New Turkey merit prioritisation? Finally, are the candidates who claim to compete with Erdogan right now truly promising a brand-new Turkey?
Potential candidates and the shackles on their feet
Although three dominant parties—the CHP, Good Party and HDP—stand in opposition, it appears as if three actors in addition to party leaders will compete with Erdogan: The Istanbul Metropolitan Municipal Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu from the CHP, Ali Babacan, who has the support of former AKP staff, and former Prime Minster Ahmet Davutoğlu.
