Fair Deal (Belfast, Slugger O'Toole): After 28 years as deputy, Peter Robinson is poised to take over the leadership of the Democratic Unionist Party and assume the First Ministership of Northern Ireland. He will emerge fully from the shadow of Ian Paisley to lead Unionism, and the fourth part of the Union, in June.
The Paisley- Robinson relationship has been central to the DUP. Paisley with his oratorical skills and emotional intelligence of Ulster’s Unionist community was the standard bearer, but it was Robinson that honed the DUP machine. Robinson’s importance came into sharp focus as the DUP overhauled the Ulster Unionist Party and negotiated the St Andrews Agreement.
Post devolution, he used his powerful position as Finance minister to full effect, driving forward an agreed budget and programme for government. However, the relationship between Paisley and McGuinness, nicknamed the ‘Chuckle Brothers,’ caused unease among Unionists and finally accelerated Robinson’s accession.
The expectation is now that the bonhomie will decline - it's not Robinson’s style anyway. But the devolution will continue. Its path may be bumpier than in the past year, but this is because of genuine disputes rather than personalities. Robinson has already met with the leader-in-waiting of the Republic of Ireland, Brian Cowen, in a co-announcement of an investment package that could bring 5,000 jobs to Northern Ireland. The clear message was that when business can be done it will be done.
In terms of Unionism locally, a post-Paisley DUP creates new dynamics which can only be guessed at - but a scenario that gives the UUP much comfort is hard to find. Nationally, the relationship with Gordon Brown is probably the coolest of all, mostly at his own behest. Brown was indifferent to Blair’s peace project, gave short shrift to proposals for a better financial package and the DUP has been angered by the in-out (usually out) attitude to Northern Ireland in Brown’s Britishness project.
Beyond devolution, Unionism is eyeing the possibility of a hung parliament. If it does occur, Robinson will do business - but for a much higher price than the UUP in the Callaghan and Major eras. In that scenario Brown may rue his present approach.
