John Osmond (Cardiff, IWA): The day after the tenth anniversary of the 18 September 1997 referendum that established Wales's National Assembly with a wafer thin majority, new polling data shows a large majority now want to move ahead to a Scottish-style Parliament, with law-making and tax-varying powers.At regular intervals over the last ten years Welsh constitutional preferences have been probed by the Institute of Welsh Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth. Ten years ago 40 per cent opted for no change, 27 per cent for an Assembly, 20 per cent for a Parliament, and 14 per cent for independence. Ten years on there has been a remarkable shift. Now only 17 per cent remain opposed to devolution, while 43 per cent want a Parliament, 28 per cent an Assembly, and 12 per cent independence.
The main shifts have been the rise in those supporting a Parliament and the drop in those opposing change - by 23 points in both cases. Indeed, the fall in those opposing change is larger proportionally than the figure in a similar poll has charted in Scotland. There those opposing devolution has fallen from 18 per cent in 1997 to 9 per cent today.
Remarkably, too, while devolution opponents were concentrated in south-eastern Wales in 1997, today's opposition is spread evenly across Wales. This suggests a closing of the linguistic divide and the growth of a civic sense of Welsh attachment. As Dr Richard Wyn Jones, Director of the Institute of Welsh Politics, commented, "Back in 1997 the Welsh people were deeply divided on the issue of devolution. Only a quarter of the electorate voted in favour of establishing an Assembly with another quarter voting against. The remaining half didn't care enough to vote at all. The majority in favour - 6,721 - was tiny, representing only 0.3 per cent of the electorate.
"In all of this the contrast with Scotland could not have been more marked. As predicted by former Labour leader John Smith, when given the opportunity, Scottish voters conclusively demonstrated that establishing a Scottish Parliament was their ‘settled' will' by returning an overwhelming Yes vote in their referendum. Ten year's on, however, and it's clear that devolution is the ‘settled will' in Wales too."
