Dropping adjectives, the Bush way
Andrew Cochran, in the conservative Counterterrorism Blog, expresses his horror that President George W. Bush did not use the words "Islamic" or "Islamist" in his State of the Union address earlier this week. In the 2007 and 2006 iterations of the speech, Bush clearly singled out "radical Islam", "Sunni" and "Shia" extremists as the targets of the "war on terrorism". Cochran bemoans Bush's "retreat from the obvious".
The toD verdict: Leaders around the world, including Gordon Brown, have backed away recently from the more strident, potentially inflammatory rhetoric invoked in tackling terrorism. While Bush has not dropped the term "war on terror" - as most British speechwriters have - from official parlance, he has, at the very least, caught wind of the changing global mood. At their best, terms like the "war on terror", "Islamofascism", and the routine invocation of "radical Islam" have done little to clarify a sense of purpose and cause, merely lending catch-phrases to complicated phenomena. At their worst, they've encouraged Huntingtonian-thinking and further distanced "hearts and minds" from Washington. The struggle waged by governments across the world in fighting terrorism has historical, geographical, societal conditions. Sticking to rhetoric and ideology is only empty sound and fury.
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In the Long War Journal, Bill Roggio provides a detailed overview, relying largely on reporting done by Pakistan's national daily Dawn, of developments in Pakistan's rugged and restive northwest frontier. While Pakistani troops press on against the forces of the Taliban-allied leader Beitullah Mehsud in South Waziristan, it seems that the army has pulled back its operations in North Waziristan. Many American commentators, including Roggio, have been very critical of Pakistan's inability and apparent reluctance to crackdown on the Islamist, al-Qaida-affiliated militants hiding along the border with Afghanistan.
In the halls of American power as well, views of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf have soured. Some analysts and policymakers believe that Musharraf's failure to deliver either democracy or security suggests that he is no longer deserving of Washington's support. Upcoming elections must push towards a more democratic Pakistan, where the military is subservient to the state. A few politicians and experts remain unconvinced that abandoning Musharraf is advisable, arguing that he is "the only game in town".
The toD verdict: As toD wrote last week, American commentators look at Pakistan the wrong way. The country, and American imperatives there, cannot be looked at, as Roggio does, through the prism of its northwestern frontier. There is no simple military solution to the crisis in the tribal areas; indeed, that friction predates even the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. By focusing on Beitullah Mehsud - who Islamabad blame for the death of Benazir Bhutto - Musharraf is hedging his bets that success on one front will give him more breathing room with the international community.
American analysts are right to hope for a functioning democracy in Pakistan and a respectful, unambitious military. Yet, upcoming elections - which have already been tarred by government restrictions and limitations - will not, in the short-term, solve Pakistan's border problem. The insurgency in that region is fuelled by anger at events in Afghanistan and at Pakistani collaboration with Washington. Musharraf may not be the "only game in town", but it's totally unclear what other "game" could succeed where he's failed.
Dropping the ball, the Yemeni way
Yemeni and American officials are at loggerheads over the southern Arabian nation's domestic counterterrorism policy. Yemen prefers to co-opt its militants, turning them away from violence in the country and using them as informants to thwart domestic attacks. Sana has resisted American attempts to extradite several suspected al-Qaida linked militants. Washington fears that while Yemen's policy may reduce violence within the country, it does little to prevent militants from exporting their expertise, training and zeal abroad.
Wilders postpones controversy
Firebrand Dutch politician has Geert Wilders has decided to release his "anti-Koranic" film in March, rather than last Friday. He was clearly unable to find a willing Dutch TV partner for the broadcast. As toD reported on Friday, the fewer available channels there are for Wilders' crass pulp the better.
