Anthony Barnett (London, OK): Its a tad cruel to say so, but when I watched Neil Kinnock being asked on the BBC news last night about a snap election one thing became clear. First Kinnock said that he thought Gordon would not call one. Then he explained, not too wordily, why Gordon should carry on for a full two years. As he moved towards his conclusion one knew with absolute certainly that if Brown follows Kinnock's advice he will lose.
The best analysis I've seen of the risks for the PM if he goes now was Peter Oborne's in Saturday's Mail, who has a sense of how Europe and Scotland both constitutional issues, could become election wildcards.
Those who scorned the idea of Brown going fast because it wasn't in his character, like Nick Robinson, are now running for cover. But as Robinson said this morning after Brown was on the Today programme, it's the Prime Minister's own advisers who are stoking the speculation and keeping the option open. But having wrong-footed the sceptics like the BBC's political editor the Brown team will soon become prisoners of their own tactics. If 'the media torrent' has a personality, it is one that hates being bored. The mere prospect of two Kinnock-long years of waiting for an election after having been so thoroughly teased will be used to savage Brown for weakness and lack of nerve.
The decision now is, to go at the end of this week for an October 25th election and turn next week's Tory conference into an election rally, or to wait and see how the Conservatives manage their differences and collapse of self-belief in Blackpool and then blow the starting whistle for an election on November 1. Which would you choose?
