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Elections in North Macedonia: waiting for a kingmaker

How do we explain the performances of the political parties? What should one expect?

Elections in North Macedonia: waiting for a kingmaker
Zoran Zaev, leader of SDSM, celebrates victory in early parliamentary elections in Skopje, July 16, 2020. | Unreguser/PA. All rights reserved.
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Conforming to the dominant trend throughout the former Yugoslavia, the government of North Macedonia declared a countrywide lockdown (March 18, 2020). However, on July 15, North Macedonia became the third post-Yugoslav state, after Serbia and Croatia, to hold elections for its national assembly (Sobranie). The electoral procedure took place against a polarized and rather fragmented background and amid the repercussions of the Covid-19 crisis on the country’s political and socioeconomic realities.

Various pre-electoral polls hinted at a tight race but converged on the prediction that the coalition built around the ruling (centre-left) Social Democratic Union/SDSM was set to win a parliamentary majority. Around 50.84% of the registered electorate turned out to cast their vote – a percentage not considerably higher than turnout rates in the parliamentary elections recently held in Croatia (46.62%) and Serbia (50.32%). By contrast to the Croatian precedent, on this occasion, the pre-electoral polls were proven rather accurate. SDSM won the parliamentary majority, garnering 36.12% of the vote and electing 46 deputies to the Sobranie – followed closely by (conservative right-wing) VMRO-DPMNE/Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (34.85%of the vote and 44 MPs).

What hot-button issues dominated the pre-electoral campaigns ? And what happens next?