At the onset of Covid-19, everyone in Belarus, including president Lukashenka, expected that the elections planned for 9 August would be at the very least boring. The country’s previous presidential campaign in 2015 was bleak and predictable, characterised by a cold truce which had set in between Belarus’ opposition, terrified by Russia’s activity in eastern Ukraine, and a state that had begun flirting with the west. Two years later, spontaneous outbursts of popular anger in Belarus quickly subsided following selective repressions, partial concessions and opposition weakness.
At the start of 2020, a hydrocarbon row with Russia and the Covid-19 pandemic seemed to absorb everyone’s energy, but the current electoral stand-off has, however, trumped everything. The western-supported old opposition, which has led an unsuccessful fight with the Belarusian government for 20 years, has largely withdrawn from proceedings. The contests’ initial challengers were unexpected: provincial video blogger Siarhei Tsikhanouski, former top manager at Belgazprombank Viktar Babaryka, and an ex-diplomat and head of an IT park, Valeri Tsepkala. The last two are renegades from Belarus’ top elite circles, a revolt not seen for 20 years.
The new protest movement has achieved a record geographic spread of mobilisation and rally attendance since the late 1990s. The state’s response has been equally unprecedented: repressions have been rapid and pre-emptive, bringing back memories of the first post-Soviet decade, with the main candidates disqualified before they could even enter the race. The partners of the three candidates - Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Veranika Tsepkala and Maryia Kalesnikava - have now stood in for them, leading crowds of students, entrepreneurs and workers under the slogan “I/We are 97%”.
