Brexit is a moving target. Each time we think we have a deal, the British House of Commons decides to re-think. It’s like the famous passage from T.S. Eliot: “Time yet for a hundred indecisions/And for a hundred visions and revisions,/ Before taking a toast and tea.”
On Saturday, Boris Johnson expected the Parliament to approve the exit deal he reached with the EU. Instead, the Parliament voted for an amendment tabled by a Tory MP, Sir Oliver Letwin. The amendment withholds approval of the deal, until the legislation to enact it is safely passed – a move that triggers the "Benn Act" and forces the Prime Minister to request a further postponement of Brexit until 31 January. You need to be a passionate follower of the British parliamentary saga to understand the exact meaning of this, but T.S. Eliot’s lines grasp the essence of it. Johnson insisted that he would press ahead with tabling Brexit legislation in the days to come, but in a parliament where even Tory MPs do not trust their own Prime Minister, a straight-forward outcome is clearly impossible. This speaks volumes about the current state of parliamentary democracy, political parties, and professional politicians in the UK, but I fear that the situation on the Continent is not much healthier in this respect.
This begs a question regarding the EU’s capacity to face the fall-out caused by Brexit. For the last three years we have been told by politicians that Brexit is chiefly the UK’s problem, but in reality the EU and the UK will remain inter-connected, forever sharing the burdens of irresponsible politics. What is the expected cost of Brexit for the EU?
