Poland is in a precarious position. Long characterised by consensual politics after the transition from communism, the country has witnessed the rise of polarisation over the last decade. The recent presidential election, decided by the slimmest of margins, splitting the country in two, is the latest epitomisation of this trend. Most troublingly, the religious and gendered character of polarisation in Poland are dimensions with which Polish society is least equipped to cope.
In mid-July, Poland's incumbent President Andrzej Duda won a narrow victory that reaffirmed the 'Law and Justice' (PiS) party's hold on power. Duda consistently demonised so-called 'LGBT ideology' and, concomitantly, promised to withdraw Poland from the Istanbul Convention, which commits signatories to prevent and combat violence against women. Duda's campaign drew upon religious cleavages in Poland, aligning himself with the conservative Catholic Church and casting his opponent, Rafał Trzaskowski, as the face of liberal Catholics and secular Poles. This polarising strategy was reflected in the election result: a population divided (with Duda garnering 51 percent to Trzaskowski's 49 percent) along east-west, rural-urban, and religious lines. And this poses a serious problem: polarisation is on the rise, but Poland does not have the resilience to cope with it.
For many years after the collapse of communism Poland's political landscape was characterised by consensus. But consensual politics frayed in the mid-2000s and gave way to contention between two main political parties, PiS and Civic Platform. The rivalry of these two parties has fostered polarisation in Poland. Since 2015, when PiS won an outright majority in parliamentary elections and when Duda first became President, PiS has aggressively pursued its policy agenda (including troubling reforms to the judiciary, anti-abortion measures, and politically targeting LGBTQ individuals), pushing Poland's liberal democracy toward conservative autocracy. In turn, the government's actions have stoked the fires of polarisation.
