Notwithstanding the ceasefire agreed in Minsk, unless Western policymakers take into account just how fragile the situation inside Ukraine really is, the promise of last year's Maidan revolution may be snuffed out, potentially in a matter of months. As terrible as it sounds, Kyiv’s endless dysfunction is the Kremlin’s most powerful ally in the current crisis – a point that is glossed over in Western policy debates on Ukraine.
The hope of Western foreign policy hawks is that the Putin regime will fall before Ukraine has a chance to descend into utter political and economic chaos. But as George Soros pointed out in Munich, Ukraine is already on the verge of collapse.
What I encountered in Kyiv a few days ago was hard to believe, especially for someone who has spent a significant time of his life there. Depression and fear are inescapable. Mistrust of Ukraine’s government is mounting. While no one misses the disgraced former President Viktor Yanukovych or wants to submit to the will of Putin's Russia, the risk of yet more domestic political turmoil grows by the day.
