With the IAEA recently reporting that they believe is Iran is still witholding information on its nuclear program, and the Bush administration winding down, where will US-Iran relations head? How will US-Iranian relations develop in the remaining of 2008? [quote=Erik van Zuylen]A hot summer? As both McCain and Obama stepped up the rhetoric at the AIPEC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee) conference this week, the US-Iranian relations remain a hot political issue, probably for the years to come. Even Joschka Fischer, former foreign minister of Germany, speculated on a military confrontation, while other sources predict a direct diplomatic engagement. A critical IAEA report increased the chances of new sanctions, while a new incentives package might provide an opening. Will we be in for a 'hot summer', a further stalemate, or a deescalation and resurgence of reason? The OD-crowd's predictive power is urgently needed to asses this pressing question. A closely related matter is the situation in Lebanon. Fortunately, the Doha agreement defused the immediate risk of a Hezbollah-led coup d'etat. If this is just a tactical ceasefire, or a workable long-term solution, remains to be seen in the months to come…Will Hezbollah stage a successful coup d'etat?[/quote] On a much lighter note, everybody is getting more and more excited, as Euro 2008 approaches. Join millions of other people that will only care about one question in the coming month: who will win Euro 2008? Will traditional superpowers like France, Italy or Germany win? An outsider like Greece in 2004? Or maybe Russia, which is rapidly increasing its international standing after Zenit St. Petersburgs UEFA Cup win. Until now, the crowd believes in the usual suspects: Spain is favourite, followed by Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. The coming months will prove if these countries will indeed prove to be reliable investments, or if they will be risky business...Who will win Euro 2008?. It was as if millions of political tragics the world over suddenly cried out in relief and were suddenly silenced...yes, the race for Democratic Presidential nominee finally appears to have finished. The wisdom of the crowd ended up predicting a June drop out by Clinton well above going all the way to the convention in How long will Hillary Clinton continue her campaign? and opinion was firmly with Obama on a whopping 82% in Which candidate will win the Democratic Presidential nomination? The crowd were enthusiastic for Obama from the start but that dropped off over time as a tussle ensued between supporters of the two camps. Come November and the surging interest in the Obama candidacy the crowd largely cast aside the predictions elsewhere that Clinton was still going to win and their prediction never went back from there. With Obama now the presumptive nominee the focus shifts to who he will select as his running mate and the contest with McCain. Wesley Clark is still tipped as the most likely, with Clinton just behind him. Is the a Obama-Clinton ticket a dream team, as some are beginning to suggest, or would it be a nightmare for the Democrats? Do the events of this week change this prediction? Make yourself heard in Who will be the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee? You can trade in the openDemocracy markets here. You will need an Inkling Markets account [which is free] to participate. The predictive markets are aimed at harnessing the wisdom of the oD crowd - please contribute your knowledge. You can read more on the markets at The wisdom of the openDemocracy crowd and The openDemocracy crowd's wisdom: January 2007 report.Remember: There will be free copies of the Quarterly, openDemocracy's new print journal, for star traders at the end of the year. Hop in and get trading!
