A day since the start of Russia’s violent military assault on Ukraine, Putin’s intentions are becoming clear. An initial aim has been to dismantle Ukraine’s air defences and claim control of its airspace, thereby allowing Russian ground forces more freedom to occupy any part of the country. Territory has also been claimed in the eastern Donbas region, individual operations have been mounted against the Ukraine Navy, military stores and weapons dumps have been destroyed and Ukraine’s command, control and communications systems have been disrupted.
If this conflict follows a typical pattern of an early 21st-century war, such as Afghanistan or Iraq, there will already have been extensive bomb damage assessment by Russian analysts to determine the impact of the attacks, and this will partly determine Russia’s immediate moves against cities, especially Kyiv. Even more important is Putin’s long-term intention, and his recent extraordinary rhetoric may help in this regard in two senses.
One is that his choice of words, including ‘demilitarising’ and ‘de-Nazifying’ Ukraine, can be achieved only by a process of regime termination and the installation of a stable and secure client regime. It is therefore essential, in Putin’s mind, for Russia to move fast and remove Ukraine's leadership before beginning its occupation. If it fails to remove the leadership, occupying Russian troops will be more vulnerable to organised local resistance from Ukrainians, especially in urban areas.
