Moscow’s democratic coalition has a clear advantage in electoral struggle - and this is a fact that the Kremlin can’t ignore. In the past month, 19 independent and opposition candidates have tried to run in the Moscow city election, and official refusals to register their candidacies have brought thousands of people onto city streets, under the blows of riot sticks and into jail.
The latest Levada Center opinion poll directly confirms what has been supported by indirect evidence: the level of sympathy for independent candidates in Moscow is high, and is rising as more people find out what’s going on with the campaign. According to the poll, 37% of respondents have a positive attitude to the protests that have gripped the city centre, 27% have a negative attitude, and nine percent are thinking about protesting directly. Given that the poll samples are always biased, this suggests that these figures are on the lower end.
We should thank the Levada Center for their neutral and carefully formulated polling questions (and the Foundation for Developing Civil Society for making the results public). In a situation of political conflict, when sides tend to describe what is happening in different terms, it’s crucial for a researcher to formulate questions without forcing an external interpretation on the respondent. This is particularly clear in a recent poll by the Russia Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM). In this poll, the survey questions were framed in a way that assumed that the refusal to register independent candidates in the Moscow elections was legal, as was any violence against people in the street.
