In the past week, the situation in Ukraine has veered from a position of imminent war to a ‘war/no war’ pendulum, producing one of the most complex crises of recent years. One thing is clear though, the certain winners will be the arms industries.
In the United States, President Joe Biden has been playing it unexpectedly tough given his previous long-term caution over US involvement in foreign wars. A desire to move beyond last year’s utter disaster in Afghanistan, as well as a look towards this year’s forthcoming mid-term elections, plays to the domestic requirement to be upfront in this crisis, as does the need to counter his ’sleepy Joe’ image.
One tactic has been for the US to provide unusually detailed intelligence of what Russia is doing, in hope of being the first to say that the Russian military really is all ready to go. This reached its peak with a warning that war could start on Wednesday 16 February – which proved to be incorrect. In doing so, the US wants, presumably, to pre-empt possible Russian tactical surprises, to convince audiences that the White House is on top of things and to counter any Trumpian opposition to US action overseas.
