In recent years politics has become increasingly unpredictable. But in Scotland, there are some events that can be predicted like clockwork. One of them is the annual controversy surrounding the publication of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) statistics.
This week saw the publication of the 2019-20 set of figures, which estimated Scotland’s notional fiscal deficit to be 8.6% of GDP. In what has become a regular feature in Scotland’s political calendar, the ensuing debate generated a lot of heat and precious little light. For those who want Scotland to remain part of the UK, Scotland’s large deficit is incontrovertible proof that Scotland cannot afford to become an independent country. For supporters of independence, the same figure illustrates how Scotland’s economy has been woefully mismanaged as part of the UK, which only strengthens the case for going it alone.
The reality is rather less exciting. While the GERS statistics provide valuable information about Scotland’s economy under the status quo, they tell us little about how things would look under hypothetical future arrangements. With polls showing support for independence rising, the debate about Scotland’s constitutional future isn’t going away anytime soon. But in the meantime, there is the small matter of a global pandemic and related economic emergency to deal with. And time is of the essence.
