James Graham (London, Unlock Democracy): Unlock Democracy published its latest report yesterday on the Scottish 2007 Elections. 251 monitors from across Scotland took part, making a note of every time they were sent a leaflet or target letter, were personally contacted by a party, saw an election-related advert or watched an election broadcast.
The results are, to be sure, a mixed bag. They show a clear correlation between direct forms of campaigning (leaflets, letters, doorstep and phone contacts) and turnout. The impact that indirect forms of campaigning (advertising, election broadcasts, etc.) have on turnout is less clear. Our overall statistics imply a slightly inverse relationship - the more advertising people see the less likely they are to vote - but not by a statistically significant amount. This could be for several reasons. It could be that advertising depresses the vote of a party's political rival. It could be that parties relied on advertising in areas which they did not prioritise (although the results also suggest that there was slightly more indirect advertising in marginal constituencies compared with safe seats). It could simply be that in areas where there was less direct campaigning (and thus a lower turnout), our monitors noticed the advertising more.
Overall, awareness of the election was not high. A significant proportion of our monitors complained of a lack of contact. More than a third did not report receiving any official information about the election during the four weeks in the run up to the election itself. And most people depended on the print and broadcast media for information about the campaign. The internet was largely dismissed, suggesting that we still have a long way to go before we have a functioning 'e-democracy,' at least in Scotland.
But there are also clear grounds for optimism. The Scottish Parliament is still a new institution and this May Scots had to deal with three different electoral systems in a single day. Yet turnout was slightly up (although still far below General Election levels). The parties distributed 130% more literature compared with our 2005 General Election survey, suggesting that the competitive nature of Scotland's electoral systems is encouraging parties to work harder. It remains to be seen if 2007 was just a blip, or the start of a trend towards a more active and engaged politics in Scotland, but at least the pointers are going in the right direction.
