Anthony Barnett (London, OK): The more I think about, the more I agree that we are moving into a decisive few weeks for the future balance of political power in Britain. Unless Brown goes for an election soon he may need to commit to two years at the helm through very difficult economic seas. At the moment he is preferred as the safer pair of hands. But over time the government may come to be blamed - for allowing Purbright's drains to rot and release foot and mouth (remember, this was a State created virus), for permitting Northern Rock to lend recklessly, etc, etc. In other words, over time the Brown government will come to be seen as responsible for the acute form of the various crises: as part of the problem not the answer, as the inheritance not the change.
But the Tories face a problem. To put it crudely: they cannot outflank New Labour on the right. When they try to, they become the nasty party and unelectable.
This is quite an existential problem for what was the country's natural right-wing party!
They banked on it being solved for them by Brown. Cameron and Co made the mistake of seeing Blair as the figure who made Labour electably right-wing and thought Brown would be an unpopular left-wing Stalinist (as if Stalin was left-wing!) thus allowing Cameron to take the centre-ground. Total disarray followed.
But try as they might and however skillfully (eg on immigration) the Tories will not be able to be more appealingly right-wing than New Labour. Unless, that is, Labour splits openly on a defining issue (which is why the referendum issue can damage Brown after the TUC vote). Brown's greatest success was his patient willingness to wait for Blair to go so that there is no organised Blairite opposition or Labour 'split'.
So now, the only course open to the Tories is to outflank Labour as the attractive party of the left. This means being strong on civil society, good government, the environment, Europe, liberty and democracy, because even when these are not popular, as David Davis once said, they are right. And on Europe they are popular.
The reason why Cameron can still win, is that he could hold this course.
However, he has two problems. First, without advertising the fact, along with PFIs etc, Labour is also seriously dedicated to the social creation of a more progressive society and is now pulling out of Iraq. Second, the most outspoken members of the Tory party are, understandably enough, rich, right wing, and often nasty. Plus, the energetic and inventive but highly individualistic Tory blogosphere is very uneasy with progressive and therefore pro-government conservatism.
Pursuing these speculations I will shortly post about Iraq, about environment policy and the class war in the Tory party, and faith schools, as all sides shape up for the decisive weeks ahead.
