Political transitions are long, complex affairs. In 2019, Kazakhstani elites started a process of leadership change, with long-time president Nursultan Nazarbayev stepping down and taking a position at the country’s security council. This week, protesters stormed government buildings and occupied streets in defiance of the state of emergency imposed by the regime across Kazakhstan. There is a direct connection between these events.
Protesters in Kazakhstan are calling for substantial political change. The slogan of the day “Shal Ket” (“Down with the Old Man”) demands the ultimate removal of Nazarbayev, who was president for 29 years, from Kazakhstan’s political scene. It embodies a widespread desire for a strong break between the current leadership and the power system that has dominated Kazakhstani politics for the past three decades. In mid-2019, when Nazarbayev resigned, this break was not on offer; in early 2022, the people of Kazakhstan are vocally insisting on it.
While a sudden increase in fuel prices is certainly one reason for unrest in the country, we need to look beyond gas to understand how the current protests emerged. Demonstrations initially erupted in the western Mangistau region after gas prices doubled overnight. These protests then spread across Kazakhstan, and economic grievances rapidly evolved into political demands. Nazarbayev’s mantra, ‘Economics first, politics later’, has lost its relevance in the era of Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who replaced the ex-Communist Party boss as president in 2019.
