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The year ahead: Stormont security sharing could lead to cabinet shake-up

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Tom Griffin (London, The Green Ribbon): 2008 could bring major changes for the territorial departments representing the devolved nations in Whitehall, as a result of the outworking of the St Andrew's Agreement in Northern Ireland.

Under the deal agreed in October 2006, policing and justice powers are due to be devolved to the Stormont Executive by May this year. Both Northern Ireland Secretary Shaun Woodward and Sinn Fein President Gerry Adams emphasised the importance of this commitment in their respective new year's messages.

Unionists have been much more wary of a development that would see them sharing security responsibility with republicans. In December DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson linked the issue to a demand for the disbandment of the IRA's Army Council.

First Minister Ian Paisley insisted this week that the DUP "had not signed up to May 2008 or any other arbitrary date set by the Government for the devolution of policing and justice."

As a result of DUP negotiating strength, we have a ‘Triple Lock' veto on this matter which is enshrined in legislation. Before Parliament would vote to amend the legislation to devolve the powers, the First Minister would have to agree to such a move and the Assembly would have to ratify it. We are a long way from that point

On a more conciliatory note, he added that "Sinn Fein has come a long way since the days when they claimed the police were legitimate targets and when republicans refused to recognise the judicial system. Today, Sinn Fein is pledged to uphold the forces of law and order, has taken their seats on the Policing Board and recognises the courts. That progress is welcome."

If an agreement can be reached, the Northern Ireland Office will lose the majority of its remaining functions. This is likely to prove an opportune moment for a wider assessment of the NIO's future and that of the other two territorial departments, the Scotland Office and the Wales Office.

One long-mooted option is to replace the three separate cabinet ministers with a single Secretary of State for the Union. This would end the current double-jobbing by Peter Hain and Des Browne, which has seen the latter facing accusations that he is a part-time Defence Secretary.

Despite such charges, the need for a strong Northern Ireland Office has delayed any fundamental review of the role of the territorial departments in the wake of devolution. 2008 could see that logjam removed, opening up a key part of the UK's emerging constitutional debate.

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