Anthony Barnett (London, OK): So Boris has won the race and become the Tory candidate for London. By a landslide. No surprise there, but when momentum starts... Coming back from Bournemouth and the extraordinary domination of Brown and seeing the steely glint in Boris' eyes in the Evening Standard, the following scenario unfolded before my eyes as I bumped home on the Northern Line.
Brown calls an election for 1 November and wins, as Tory voters sit on their hands in despair. Brown carries all before him. The Conservative Party beats up Cameron who eventually resigns. But the economy starts to buckle and Londoners quickly get bored with the seemingly anti-immigrant, always-banging-on-about-Britishness father of the nation - whose line Ken is also obliged to follow. In part out of sheer instinct for being contrary and showing Brown we don't want a one-party state, and in part because the media are desperate for some credible opposition which only Boris provides, Boris wins. Once he has won, the boy does well. Remember, it's an executive post as Livingstone has shown. There is no entrenched civil service limiting his freedom of action or messing up his policy initiatives. He too hires the best from around the world to help him run the capital. His popularity rises. Meanwhile, the Tories in desperation turn to Hague as a stop-gap leader. But he just can't turn the party around. Polls show that under Boris The Experienced the Conservatives would trounce Labour under an increasingly unpopular Brown who clings to No 10 like a limpet. So Boris reluctantly says no to running for Mayor again (even though it is the run-up to the Olympics), and instead, as his country calls, accepts the leadership of the Conservative Party. He becomes Prime Minister after an election less than 5 years from now, having played the English card.
I know, against this is the incredibility factor, that Boris is all hat and no cattle as they say in Texas. He has the cycling vote; but how can he win the many millions who use bendy buses? A lot will hinge on his policies: shared equity rather than just social housing seems like an interesting start. Don't forget, even if it was just a magazine, he has actually run something. Anyway, it is not a prediction - just a reminder that tomorrow will not be like today.
