On 27 February, a referendum on changing the constitution is to be held in Belarus. President Alexander Lukashenka is pushing for amendments that would give him a powerful mechanism for an authoritarian transition of power. The paradox of the situation is that he is unlikely to use this mechanism in the foreseeable future.
The constitutional change would be the third since Lukashenka became president in 1994. The first two changes, both approved by referendum, appeared to be logical steps in the process of establishing a personalist dictatorship: in 1996, Lukashenka significantly expanded his own powers as president and reduced the powers of parliament; and in 2004 he lifted restrictions on the number of presidential terms.
Lukashenka spoke about the third proposed change to the constitution for the first time back in the autumn of 2016, when he announced the need to “create a group of wise men, lawyers who will analyse our fundamental law”. In subsequent years, he returned to the topic from time to time, speaking about the need for constitutional reform, but did not take any specific actions.
