I was one of few observers who thought the fallout over Prigozhin’s ‘mutiny’ in June 2023 might take a while to occur. I guess I was half right.
Many seem surprised it took so long for the consequences of Prigozhin’s march on Moscow to catch up with him. Others immediately focused on the implications for the war against Ukraine: that Prigozhin’s demise proved that it had been worth Ukraine fighting for every inch of Bakhmut, or that his violent death showed that agreements with Putin are futile.
I think these takes largely miss the point. And like some other colleagues I think ‘unresolvable whodunits’ – like the mystery of Prigozhin’s death – are fruitless. Instead, we should focus on how such a visibly violent demise pushes development within Russia itself. The interpretation, and subsequent actions based on those interpretations – regardless of the truth – are worth tracking.
