The changes in United States military strategy since the "war on terror" was at its height are echoed by the evolution of al-Qaida and its ideas. The consequences are being felt in Syria.
How does al-Qaida see the tumult in the Arab world, the persistent conflict in other regions - and its own prospects? The movement commissions its longstanding management consultants to write a report, which is exclusively published on openDemocracy.
A collision of events - a misjudgment in the Persian Gulf, an attack in Damascus, a visit to Israel, a bomb in Bulgaria - hands militarism a further advantage over diplomacy in the region. The dangers of a sudden escalation are increasing.
Many powerful states tend to view current global conflicts through the lens of Islamism, and to put military action at the heart of the response. But the deeper roots and character of these conflicts are to be found in poverty and marginalisation, not ideology.
The advance of a radical movement in northern Mali, and its destruction of cultural treasures in the ancient city of Timbuktu, are increasing calls for a foreign military response.
The United States is more seriously preparing for military action against Iran than is widely realised. An attack - obviating the need for one by Israel - may not be immediate and is not yet certain, but it is being intensively planned.
The conflict in Syria is being shaped by the strategic rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. A descent into even greater violence could yet be avoided, but this would require both Russia and the United States to shift their stance.
The tension between Washington and Islamabad over the former's drone assaults on targets in Pakistan is rising. But a prospective geopolitical rivalry involving both countries has even wider ramifications.
The experience of Afghanistan and Iraq compels Washington to rethink its model of 21st-century warfare. Its evolving focus, already visible in the widespread use of drones and special forces, also has profound political implications.
The death of the Libyan official convicted over the Lockerbie bombing in December 1988 will not end the question of responsibility for the atrocity.
A single cost-cutting decision to an expensive naval project is in itself a mere adjustment. But in a wider context it highlights the missing debate about Britain's 21st-century security needs.
The emphasis on armed-drones is transforming the United States's counterinsurgency strategy. But their capacity for proliferation carries acute and so far unrecognised dangers for Washington and its allies.
