The prognosis of a thirty-year war looked outlandish as Saddam's regime toppled, persuasive as Iraq's insurgency erupted - and now less plausible amid American forces' retreat. But two core issues continue to give it life.
There is powerful evidence for the argument that the al-Qaida movement is in decline. But there are other processes at work - including in United States presidential politics - that could yet create a different outcome.
The tensions between Washington and Tehran are being further fuelled by naval exercises and discussion of strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. This makes the absence of a direct communications channel all the more worrying.
The aftermath of the death of Kim Jong-Il highlights the obstacles in the way of a clear assessment of North Korea's power dynamics, says JE Hoare.
The tsunami and nuclear accident made 2011 an especially hard year for Japan. But the questions raised by the experience are similar to those being asked across the world, says Takashi Inoguchi.
A series of developments - in Iraq, the United States and Iran itself - nudges the balance of calculation towards an attack on Tehran. The additional danger is that this could happen by inadvertence.
The argument in America for war against Iran is often couched in religious-apocalyptic terms. But the decisive element in the end will be strategic and political calculation.
A fresh awareness of system-failure and resource-constraint draws on the experience and ideas of the 1970s. But this time the vision of radical change is real possibility as well as urgent necessity. (This article was first published on 1 December 2011)
In the face of the world’s urgent economic and environmental problems, political leadership is failing. But from the ground up, new tools of understanding are emerging to fill the gap and point a way forward.
openDemocracy’s founder Anthony Barnett writes to you...
The global demonstrations of 2011 both highlight the reality of economic system-failure and reveal its linkage to the crisis of resource constraints. The result is a measure of the scale of change needed over coming decades.
The recent assassination of Colombian marxist insurgent group leader Alfonso Cano has been hailed internationally as an advance towards peace, giving Colombia a boost down the path to becoming the latest emerging market of Latin America. A closer look at the history and nature of Colombia's nearly
