The United States is increasing support of its Iraqi and Kurdish allies and escalating attacks on its jihadist enemies. Islamic State's long-term plan, though, remains on track.
A military escalation in Iraq depends on Washington's assessment of the Islamic State's power and intentions. But the jihadis are also thinking hard about their next target.
After its four-week bombardment, a three-day ceasefire reveals that the ground has shifted under Israel.
A revived Taliban insurgency and alarming military revelations cast a new shadow over United States strategy in Afghanistan.
The shock to Israel's system from the intense conflict in Gaza is profound.
Israel's conflict with Hamas highlights its close partnership with the United States over missile defence. But it also deepens Washington's regional worries over Syria, Iraq, Hizbollah, and Iran.
Paul Rogers has been writing a weekly column on global security for openDemocracy since 28 September 2001. From this invaluable archive, here we foreground his work on the unfolding crisis
ISIL's planners are looking beyond the military stalemate in Iraq. In this context, Israel's attacks on Gaza are a gift to the movement.
An unlikely alliance of four states is coalescing to oppose the ISIS advance in Iraq. But the group may not wait to be challenged.
An escalating conflict across much of northern Iraq and Syria involves a kaleidoscope of forces, with Iran and Saudi Arabia playing a key role.
ISIL is now intent on consolidating its military gains in Iraq. Any western intervention would play into the group's hands.
The shadow of the United States-Israel military relationship looms over Tony Blair's peace-envoy role in the middle east.
[This article was first published on 28 June 2007]
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