A decade ago, western leaders' excessive reaction and inflated rhetoric served to amplify rather than diminish the power of Islamist groups. The same danger now overhangs Mali, Algeria and beyond.
The seizure of an international gas-plant in Algeria follows closely the escalation of conflict in Mali. The response of western states to both reinforces the worldview of their Islamist adversaries.
The French-led military intervention in Mali both accelerates the war in the west African country and transforms its character. The prospect is of a long-term engagement that Islamist forces far beyond the region will see as an historic opportunity
The United States's "remote control" campaign against Islamist targets is intensifying. But behind the headlines, the transnational diffusion of al-Qaida's idea is just as potent.
The growing challenge to Bashar al-Assad's regime raises the issue of Syria's chemical weapons, and whether there are any feasible military options in addressing it. Here, the decisions of the United States and Israel will be crucial.
The world faces immense and unavoidable security, climate and economic tests. In the effort to meet them, the second decade of the 21st century is crucial.
Syria's conflict is approaching a decisive phase, and the United States is making intense efforts to influence the shape of a post-Assad regime. Here, the prominence of Islamist groups among the rebels is becoming ever more important.
The pace of events in Syria is reinforcing the case for western military intervention. There is still - just - time for a Washington-led but inclusive diplomatic option to deliver an outcome that averts further great suffering.
The United States and Israel see armed drones as a valuable tool of "remote control". But Iran, China and Russia - and non-state actors - are working to achieve their own capacity. The emerging era is one of drone proliferation.
A short armed conflict highlights vital longer-term shifts both in the military confrontation between Israel and Hamas, and in the balance of forces in the wider region.
Mali's army will be unable to dislodge the Islamist hold on the country's north, even with the help of fellow west African forces. This makes direct western military intervention more likely.
Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney creates limited space for movement in Washington's domestic and foreign policy, including over climate disruption. But the dynamics of a new style of war also act as a powerful force for continued militarisation.
