Mali's army will be unable to dislodge the Islamist hold on the country's north, even with the help of fellow west African forces. This makes direct western military intervention more likely.
Barack Obama's victory over Mitt Romney creates limited space for movement in Washington's domestic and foreign policy, including over climate disruption. But the dynamics of a new style of war also act as a powerful force for continued militarisation.
The growing prospect of western-backed military intervention to reverse the spread of Islamism in west Africa is good news for an evolving al-Qaida movement.
The proliferating use of armed drones is but part of a wider and dangerous shift in the nature of 21st-century warfare.
The conflict in Syria leaves western powers with no good choices, and their agony is intensified by Islamist advances in west Africa. The search for intelligent security responses goes on.
When the United States led the overthrow of the Taliban in 2001, it planned to extend its power from Afghanistan to the wider region. Today, the actions of leading states - Russia, Pakistan, and China among them - are contributing to a very different outcome.
A significant change of thinking inside Britain's military services raises the prospect that the long-term ambition of nuclear disarmament could become reality.
An interplay of domestic politics, military pressures and regional tensions means there is an acute danger of war before the United States presidential election.
There are striking connections across decades and enmities in the evolving methods of armed warfare. In particular, non-state actors will soon be deploying versions of the armed-drones now wielded by western powers.
A pressure-cooker mix of electoral, technical and diplomatic factors is shaping the potential for conflict over Iran.
What are the prospects of war over Iran? The hi-tech arms and intelligence trade between Washington and its regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, is a guide.
The destructive potential of Syria's conflict is creating alarm in Washington and a bare margin of hope for diplomatic progress.
