Defeating Hezbollah?

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is now in its fourth week, and a resolution seems as remote as when the fighting first broke out. Like many of my friends and colleagues, I am torn between the desire for the fighting to stop and the need for a durable solution. Israel’s response may have been disproportionate when compared to the kidnapping of two soldiers. But it is perhaps less so when considering Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel, which have terrorised local communities for many years. In my view, Israel has every right to defend its territory. In a way, I can even understand some of the Israeli commentators who regret the day their government agreed to leave the buffer zone in southern Lebanon. At the same time, Israel’s response has been thoroughly flawed. The biggest mistake was the strategic air campaign against targets in Beirut, which had little to do with Hezbollah. The Israeli assumption was that people would start blaming Hezbollah for dragging the country into a war with Israel. But the opposite happened. Throughout history, the record of strategic bombing is extremely poor, and I sometimes wonder what makes politicians and generals believe it can ever work. - When the Germans attacked London during World War II, the Blitz experience strengthened people’s determination to resist the Nazis. - When the United States bombed North Vietnam, it helped Ho Chi Minh mobilise the entire Western world against America’s war. - And when NATO attacked Belgrade, it threw a lifeline to Milosevic’s corrupt regime. Professor John Arquilla, a renowned strategist, put it quite well when he said, ‘People hate those who are attacking them’. It really seems to be as simple as that. The attacks on Beirut allowed Hezbollah to present the Israeli campaign as a war against Lebanon. And it made the Lebanese believe that they need Hezbollah to defend their country against ‘Israeli aggression’. Israel says it won’t stop until Hezbollah is defeated. But defeating Hezbollah has become so much more difficult now that the group can once again claim that they are the heroes of resistance. Of course, we must never forget that Hezbollah depends on the support of Iran and Syria. Yet, rather than countering their influence, Israel’s campaign seems to have strengthened their destructive hold over Lebanese politics. How all this should lead to a durable solution that brings peace and stability to the region, I do not know. For once, I am glad I am not in charge.