Donald Trump’s latest about-turn on the war in Iran is welcome news, if it lasts. In classic Trumpian style, his military posture has flipped from warning Iranians that a “whole civilisation will die” to presenting himself as the man of peace.
It’s possible that this latest instance, the pausing of military action over the Strait of Hormuz, stems from a realisation among some of his advisers that this is a war the US cannot win. More likely, though, it is due to Trump’s visit to China next week.
As November’s midterms near, the US president will want to use his time in Beijing to dominate global headlines as a bringer of peace, not war. Yet the ceasefire is already on shaky ground, with Iran and the US both blaming each other for a recent clash in the shipping channel.
If Trump fails to position himself as a peacemaker, he may revert to ‘Rambo’ form. Careful diplomacy from Iran and skilled mediation from Pakistan might diminish that risk, especially as another problem emerges for the White House: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait closed their airspace and bases to US military flights this week.
While both countries have since lifted the restrictions, any possibility of permanent closures would greatly limit the US Air Force’s ability to attack targets in Iran, making any large-scale strategic bombing of Iran hugely dependent on the heavy bombers the US has forward-based at the Royal Air Force’s Fairford base in Gloucestershire. These include 15 ‘ mission-ready’ B-1B Lancer planes, whose flight time to Iran is half that of planes flying from their home bases in the US, but still much longer than those in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.
Tehran is not the only issue for Trump’s newfound desire for peace; Binyamin Netanyahu, the war’s instigator, wants to avoid a settlement, viewing a prolonged conflict as essential for his political survival at Israel’s general election due in a few months. Even an uneasy ceasefire is bad for the Israeli prime minister – how far he’ll go to prevent lasting peace remains to be seen.
Even if the conflict with Tehran cools, Israel’s wider regional conflicts continue to intensify and will likely gain media coverage if the global focus shifts away from Iran. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have been acting with impunity in Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza – and its actions may well come back to haunt Israel in years to come.
In southern Lebanon, for example, IDF chief of staff Eyal Zamir has said that from his perspective, there is no ceasefire: Hezbollah remains active and must be stopped.
More than 2,700 people have now been killed since the fighting started on 2 March, according to the Lebanese health ministry, with thousands more wounded. That death toll may well increase further; this week, the IDF ordered Lebanese villagers to evacuate their homes before they are destroyed in airstrikes and bombed Beirut for the first time since Israel agreed a ceasefire with Lebanon on 16 April. Some 120 people were reportedly killed across the country, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, which does not distinguish combatants from civilians.
Then, in the occupied West Bank, Israeli troops are “killing like we haven’t killed since 1967”, according to comments that the head of the army’s central command, major general Avi Bluth, reportedly made at a private briefing, which were leaked to Israel’s Haaretz newspaper.
The comments, which Bluth and the Israeli authorities have so far not denied the authenticity of, refer to the 1967 Six-Day War, when Israeli forces occupied the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. Bluth, who was himself born in a West Bank settlement in 1974 and educated in a religious military academy, reportedly also spoke about how he has loosened legal constraints on his troops operating in the West Bank.
As well as the shooting of stone-throwers, 42 of whom were killed last year, soldiers can now detain Palestinians attempting to cross the separation barrier with Israel by shooting them in the knee or below. This decision, Bluth said, is intended to create “barrier awareness”, adding: “There are a lot of ‘limping monuments’ in Palestinian villages of those who tried to [cross the barrier], so there is a price being paid.”
Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank are already subject to military law, and extended detention without trial is a common practice, while Jewish settlers are judged by civil courts.
Finally, there is Gaza, where the circumstances for Palestinians remain dire. Reuters last week reported that the Pentagon is closing the Civil-Military Coordination Centre, which the US set up to monitor the ceasefire and boost the flow of aid to Palestinians after last October’s truce. The multinational military-run body’s work has been repeatedly undermined by Israeli attacks on Gaza, as well as Hamas’s refusal to disarm and continued control over parts of the territory.
As to the current social and economic conditions there, last month the UN published the Gaza Strip Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment prepared for it by the World Bank and the EU. It makes for difficult reading, but even the press release should be read by anyone looking for a more peaceful Middle East.
In short, human development in Gaza has been set back by 77 years since the October 2023 Hamas attack and subsequent IDF response. Around 1.9 million people have been displaced, many of them multiple times, and 60% of the population is homeless. Recovery and reconstruction are estimated to cost $71.4bn, yet there is little indication that the Israeli government wants an end to the ongoing catastrophe, with the collapse of the Civil-Military Coordination Centre being the latest indicator.
Whatever the motivation of Netanyahu and his supporters, their policies look designed to make life so difficult for the Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, East Jerusalem and especially Gaza that many will finally give up the struggle and try to move elsewhere.
The reality may be that some will, but most cannot or will not. For decades to come, whatever else comes out of Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, there will be hundreds of thousands of embittered and angry Palestinians.
As to Iran, Tehran’s almost ‘in your face’ attitude towards the United States, Israel’s essential backer, leaves Washington less influential across the Middle East and Israel a much diminished challenge as a result.
Israel has long put a premium on the security of its Jewish population, but Netanyahu’s endeavours over the past three years have each, in their own way, made Israel less secure.
Israel has fallen into an insecurity trap of its own making.
