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They are pro-refrom, but won't vote

9 June 2005

Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) has published "some interesting poll results":http://www.ispa.ir/MorePage.aspx?tName=ANews1&pType=ANInXML&Id=35 which could be the least biased among the ones made public, especially comparing to the campaign polls that are simply unreliable.

*Among the most likely voters* Karrubi: 7.2% Moin: 9.7% Rafsajani: 37.3% Larijani: 8.3% Qalibaf: 17.6% Mehralizadeh: 3.0% Ahmadi Nejad: 4.6% Rezaie:3.0% Undecided: 7.6% Don't vote: 1.8%

*Among the entire sample* Karrubi: 6.3% Moin: 11.6% Rafsajani: 31.4% Larijani: 7.5% Qalibaf: 15.9% Mehralizadeh: 2.9% Ahmadi Nejad: 4.2% Rezaie: 2.8% Undecided: 6.7% Don't vote: 10.7%

It's interesting that Moin is the only candidate whose vote increases (by almost 3%) when it comes to those who are less likely to vote. In the same situation, Rafsanjani and Qalibaf would lose most (by almost 6% and 3%.)

This is why a low turnout only harms Moin and is to Rafsanjani and Qalibaf's advantage.

How do you interpret the results? Please use the comments section.

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