The ‘will they/ won’t they strike Iran’ debate is necessarily taking into account the Iraq debacle. Norman Solomon addresses the main arguments against the likelihood of military action in his article ‘The Iran Crisis: "Diplomacy" as a Launch Pad for Missiles.’ If you hold any of the following views it is worth considering his refutations:
Illusion #1: With the U.S. military bogged down in Iraq, the Pentagon is in no position to take on Iran.
Illusion #2: The Bush administration is in so much political trouble at home – for reasons including its lies about Iraqi WMDs – that it wouldn’t risk an uproar from an attack on Iran.
Illusion #3: The U.S. won’t attack Iran because that would infuriate the millions of Iran-allied Shiites in Iraq, greatly damaging the U.S. war effort there.