by Tan Copsey
The repeated insistence of British Prime Minister Tony Blair that the G8 + 5 (+Richard Branson, + Paul ‘Sustainable Socks’ Wolfowitz) was the only forum through which a real global climate agreement could be achieved has turned out not to be complete garbage (taste the surprise Tony, taste it!).
The forum, known as the Global Legislators Organisation for a Balanced Environment (Globe – which incidentally is not Gays and Lesbians of Bushwick Empowered, one of the 18 other global Globe’s) has reached an agreement on a number of key issues, most notably emissions targets for all nations, a global carbon trading scheme, a total carbon concentration in the atmosphere, and a possible timetable by which all this should be in place, and vaguely sort-a ready to go.
Agreement that developing countries will have to face targets is in fact a significant step forward – though the more cynical among us would note that it was inevitable, and a bloody long time coming (in fact they haven’t really happened yet, have they? Hmmmm…). This said agreement that we need a global carbon market is more than welcome, for a global market means global caps, which should at least minimise the possibility of ‘leakage’ of polluting industry to nations exempted from action. We’re now free to dream the liberal environmental dream of global trade in emissions rights leading to real economic and environmental efficiency. Yay!
The kicker? Well there’s always something wrong with these things, and this is no exception. Item 7 of the lovely forum statement suggests a stabilisation of 450 to 550 parts per million of C02 equivalent in the atmosphere. Which means, you guessed it, that it’s going to get hot, not Kate Moss hot, or even Paris Hilton’s album hot, but gonna-kill you, sweet summer in Iraq, hot. Yes we’re going to set ourselves a goal of increasing global emissions and temperatures. Meanwhile we acknowledge the possibility of positive feedback effects, but we’re more than willing to risk them. Altogether now – ‘hot in the city, hot in the city, tonight’.
And even with this gigantic disclaimer, it might still be worth holding our respective horses. For one of the main strengths of the forum, the fact that agreements are totally non-binding, is also its overwhelming weakness. I’m left asking, yet again, is this just more carbon-dioxide spewed from the mouths of climate dilettantes. Once representatives of the worlds ‘great’ nations have flown home, it may very well be back to the bureaucracy, and time to let the negotiators slowly grind out what will really happen. It doesn’t take Arsene Wegner type genius to realise that the G8 + 5’s goal of having an agreement tied up by 2009, may not be possible. Or that many of those nations so concerned today, may not really even want it to happen.
Picture via Emirates' flickR page.
