Saving the North Korea crisis: China or US?

The US believes that China holds the key, and China believes it's the US.

China's influence could be the solution to the current crisis over North Korea's defiance in continuing its weapons 'testing' programme, according to the US. The basis for this belief is that China is the country's major supplier of aid – food, fuel, energy – and with the ability to pull the plug on this supply, should it ever deem necessary, the North might find itself in a bit of a pickle.

However, China is reluctant to impose sanctions for fear it may lead to the collapse of the Pyongyang regime, risking a knock-on effect that could destabilise the Korean peninsula and – with a flux of migration heading in its general direction – destabilise China. Assuming that the Pyongyang is aware of this, it is questionable how much influence China actually has. After repeatedly calling on Pyongyang to abandon its plans for last week's missile tests, they went ahead anyway, effectively snubbing Premier Wen Jiabao's requests not to "aggravate regional tensions". 

The preferred option for China is the resumption of the six-nation talks (China, the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia) in the hope of resolving the situation with those involved "keeping calm". There is only one problem with this approach, North Korea walked out on these – Chinese sponsored – talks a year ago, and a reason they have failed thus far might be because North Korea dislikes (for lack of a better word) a number of the nations involved (notably South Korea and Japan).

North Korea, it seems, is only interested in negotiating with the US, and China has repeatedly appealed to the US to hold direct talks with Pyongyang. A deal, with the potential to end weapons programmes – in return for US recognition and peace, was put forward during the Clinton years, and came close to becoming a reality, but unfortunately never materialised.

The US – in the shape of envoy Christopher Hall – has now urged Pyongyang to be cautious with plans for further tests: "the situation would get out of control if the North fired off more missiles". What China believes is a real opportunity to resolve the situation and prevent its escalation is not reciprocated by the US, as further highlighted by Mr Hill's comments: "If they want international isolation, that is precisely what they are going to get,"

The US has now completely ruled out bilateral talks between Pyongyang and Washington.