I’m as surprised as anyone to be feeling cautiously optimistic about the upcoming American midterm elections. My natural tendency is pessimism and, under normal circumstances, midterms tend to go badly for the party that holds the presidency. (Of course, the past few years of American political life can hardly be described as ‘normal’ for many reasons, few of them good.)
Yet here I sit, facing a number of indicators that Democrats may perform well on 8 November in both House and Senate races.
If they do, Joe Biden’s administration may be able to shepherd through some much-needed reforms – not least to the US’s flawed voting system itself. Whether this is possible will depend on the precise balance of power in the Senate, and whether a sufficient number of Democratic senators is willing to abolish the filibuster, a rule that requires 60 of the 100 senators to allow a final vote on a bill – making it easy for the opposition party to obstruct the ruling party’s agenda and block legislation.
