Anthony Barnett (London, OK): The One Wales agreement was endorsed today by Plaid Cymru and thus a Labour-Plaid coalition is formed to govern Wales and the nationalists will become a party of government there for the first time. Momentum means a lot in politics and if the voting age is indeed dropped to 16, as Gordon Brown suggests, then a back-of-the envelope actuarial calculation suggests that if this coalition lasts into the next Welsh parliament it may be Labour’s turn to be the junior partner. Neil, now Lord, Kinnock, the Labour leader who opened the doors to modernisation in part to prevent just such an outcome, spoke against the coalition with Plaid at Welsh Labour’s special conference yesterday. According the BBC’s Betsan Powys, in her blog, he observed that Plaid's support was like “a rope that supports a hanged man”. If he did indeed slip into the past tense, that reveals how much life he thinks Rhodri Morgan’s Labour machine has left in it.
It is difficult to over-emphasise the importance of this 7.7.07 day for the United Kingdom. The Anglo-British political class in London should be sounding the alarm, nationalists are now in government in all three of the ‘other countries’ of Britain. More important, they have the initiative. Salmond is getting on fine with the Queen and is flying off to talk with Ian Paisley in Belfast who is nationalist enough without taking into account his coalition partners Sinn Fein. As Robert Hazell proposed, at the very least Brown should have merged
“the Scotland and Wales Offices and revive... the Joint Ministerial Committee to negotiate with the new governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. If he doesn’t, devolution is going to cause him endless grief, because Whitehall won’t have the capacity to think about devolution in the round”.
But even though they are now surrounded, the three main Westminster parties still cannot see the national question “in the round”. Instead - to use shorthand - cajoled by red-top alarmism on EU, terrorism and immigration, the Anglo-British political class is looking inwards. Is flying the Union Jack over London the best way to ensure it flutters with the same meaning over Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast? For if it doesn't the Union will be weakened not strengthened.
For all their historic potential, the proposals and approach the Prime Minister laid out before Parliament last week did not seize the initiative on the national question. There is a sense of two alternatives emerging. One is a break up of the Union via Scottish and then Welsh referendums, pushed through against an anti-European Tory government in London. The timing depends on how long you think it will be before Labour eventually loses office. The other, the approach advocated by David Marquand in his OK response to Tom Nairn, is for a federal British constitution that gives England a voice and is “explicitly designed to complete the democratisation of this country”. If anyone can think of a 'third way' that is more than some reforms, however radical, plus hoping for the best, please let OK know.
