Neal Ascherson (London and Argyll, author): The latest opinion poll shows the SNP with an unprecedented lead over Labour in Scotland by 48 to 32 per cent. At the same time it shows that the nationalists' core demand for independence lacks popular support by a similar margin, with 49 per cent against and 31 per cent in favour. So as we approach their first 100 days, how should we assess the new government in Edinburgh?
In November last year when the rise both of the SNP and of anti-Scottish sentiment in England were becoming part of the zeitgeist, John Lloyd wrote:
The nationalists I have met and observed, though politically astute, have been moulded into a posture of contempt for a state in which their fellow countrymen and women have lived for three centuries, to which they contributed greatly and whose both oppressions and freedoms they helped create, and profit from. I would not like to see such people run Scotland: they would be likely to recreate, of course in contemporary dress, the narrowness and cultivation of grievance which characterised the de Valera decades in Ireland, and from which the Republic has only shook itself free in the last two decades.
This prediction of narrowness and grievance-mongering has not yet been borne out. If Iain MacWhirter's claim that Salmond is on his way to being Scotlands first great political leader in 300 years seems excessive, here is a snapshot of the SNP's torrent of initiatives which helps explain its sharp rise in popularity: some are just proposals, others warnings of measures on the way. They include -
- A halt to the preparations for Edinburgh trams and the rail link to Edinburgh airport: a costs and needs enquiry will take place.
- A climate change bill proposing an 80 per cent reduction in CO2 emission by 2050.
- An end to private health care within the NHS
- A housebuilding drive: supply to increase by 50 per cent per annum up to 2016.
- Cutting school class sizes to 18.
- Abolishing the student graduate endowment scheme
- Relief on prescription charges for chronically sick
- The abolition of council tax, to be replaced by a local income tax (this was actually voted through the Scottish Parliament)
- The establishment of a 'Council of Economic Advisers', on the US model
- Planning the establishment a separate Scottish Civil Service.
- Approaching the Treasury, to discuss transfer of oil and gas revenues to Scotland.
- A 'state' visit to Brussels by Salmond, in which he staggered officials by announcing that Scotland's relationship with the EU would be 'transformed'.
- Demanding that Scotland lead for the UK on EU fishery negotiations, as Flanders does for Belgium.
- Suggestions of proposals to transfer more powers to Holyrood for 'fiscal autonomy', and probably over asylum and migration.
- Four meetings of Salmond and the Queen
There remains the manifesto commitment to introduce into the Scottish Parliament a bill for a referendum on independence. As things stand, such a bill has zero chance of getting a majority in the Holyrood parliament. But even though a clear majority of the Scottish electorate do not at present support independence, nonetheless, when asked, most want a referendum so they can decide the matter for themselves. This suggests Salmond may currently be happy for the opposition parties to refuse the proposal, thus making themselves more unpopular while relieving him from what is still, for him at least at the moment, a premature encounter with Scottish opinion.
The SNP called its May manifesto It's Time to Look Forward. Currently, they are. By honouring their pledges the nationalists, whatever else you may think, seem committed to lead a Scotland, whether within or outside the Union, that skips the de Valera stage.
