The United Kingdom looks almost certain to take part in May’s European Parliament elections, voting for 73 new MEPs, ostensibly for the 2019-2024 sitting. The unprecedented (and slightly farcical) situation has arisen due to the failure of Parliament to vote for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement or for an alternative which would see Britain leave before the vote is held on May 23, with the EU granting an extension until October 31, 2019 on the condition that Britain takes part.
Yet the vote will be significant. It will have more symbolic than practical value, as it is unlikely that any elected officials will serve as MEPs for very long due to Britain’s impending exit, meaning many voters are likely to be tempted to shun traditional party loyalties. More importantly, it will also act as a gauge of UK public opinion on Brexit – potentially even imitating a second referendum – and may well influence the direction the government takes subsequently.
Given the government’s failure to deliver Brexit, the election is highly favourable to the radical right, although it is worth stating that the radical right has always overperformed in European Parliament elections. Ukip, who have never breached 14% nationally in UK Parliament elections, won the most votes in the 2014 EU election, gaining just short of 27% and came second in 2009.
