Many followers of global trade politics anticipate that the ongoing US-China tensions will end in one of two ways: the death of the bull or the downfall of the matador. In other words: the end of dollar hegemony or the bursting of China’s debt bubble.
But as the bipolar technological trade war rages on amidst an unprecedented pandemic, a third actor stalks the arena. Europe has long teetered on the sidelines of digital competitiveness, but its actions in recent months suggest that it will not be a passive actor in the post-pandemic trade order.
If European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent decisions are anything to go by, the next decade of global politics could be shaped by proxy economic battles waged by the US, China and Europe for digital market access. A Republican victory in the autumn would only increase the likelihood of Europe joining the other two countries in implementing trade barriers at home, investing in data infrastructures abroad, and further disrupting the existing international trade order.
